Exit Polls Result 2024: Why are Indian elections in states and Lok Sabha becoming one-sided? (2024)

If exit polls hold true, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections appear to be heading towards another one-sided contest. Exit polls have predicted a massive victory for the BJP-led NDA, projecting gains in the South and East while maintaining dominance in the North. This trend of decisive victories has been observed in recent Lok Sabha and state elections, signaling a significant shift in Indian electoral dynamics. Here are a few of the emerging trends.

Bipolar Elections

Continuing the recent trend, the state assembly results in Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim exemplify this pattern. The BJP looks set to score a landslide victory, winning nearly 50 seats in Arunachal Pradesh, while the ruling SKM leads in 31 out of 32 seats in Sikkim. Similar patterns were visible in earlier elections in Punjab, Bengal, Odisha, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh. Voters are increasingly casting their ballots with clear, decisive intentions to select or reject parties in state polls and Lok Sabha elections. Clear patterns have emerged where voters chose one party for state polls while preferring another for the Lok Sabha. For instance, in Delhi, voters supported Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP in assembly elections but voted for the BJP in Lok Sabha elections. Similar behavior was observed in Bihar and West Bengal.

Social Media Influence

Social media has played a crucial role in shaping voter opinions. Platforms like Facebook, Twitter, and WhatsApp have become battlegrounds for political campaigns, influencing public perception and voter behavior. The BJP's robust social media strategy has significantly bolstered its outreach and engagement, contributing to its widespread popularity. The opposition parties are also fast learning the ropes to counter the narratives and challenge BJP's supremacy on social media.

Weak Opposition

The opposition's inability to present a unified and coherent alternative has further tipped the scales in favor of the ruling party. Frequent changes in leadership and strategy, such as the last-minute nomination of Rahul Gandhi in the Congress stronghold of Rae Bareli, reflect a broader indecisiveness and lack of direction. This has eroded voter confidence in the opposition's capability to govern effectively. Additionally, the opposition's flip-flops over the larger INDI alliance have sent confusing signals to voters.

Cultivating Loyal Vote Banks

Political parties are increasingly focusing on building and maintaining loyal vote banks. The BJP's sustained efforts to connect with various communities and address their specific concerns have paid off, resulting in a more consolidated voter base. This strategic cultivation of support has been pivotal in securing electoral victories. Election data from 2019 collected by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies in New Delhi showed how a sharp shift in support among women and lower caste groups towards the BJP helped propel them to a majority.

BJP Becoming an Election Machine

Since Modi first won power a decade ago, the BJP has dominated Indian politics. The party won a majority in the lower house in 2019 and, together with its allies, controls more than half of India’s states. A big part of that success is often attributed to the personal charisma of Modi, who has developed an almost cult-like presence in Indian politics. Critics complain about creeping authoritarianism under Modi, whose government is accused of frequently cracking down on opposition rivals and civil society voices.

However, what is less appreciated is the sheer organisational depth and discipline of Modi’s party, which has become one of the most efficient electoral machines in modern democratic politics. The party is structured into a series of state, district, and local-level units in a strategy designed to deploy a panna pramukh with such granularity that each grassroots worker can focus on about 30 voters. This helps with everything from relentless door-knocking to social media campaigns in which activists disseminate talking points to neighborhood WhatsApp groups.

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